FRACTIONAL PERSISTENCE AND DYNAMIC INTERDEPENDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, HEALTH OUTCOMES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM FRACTIONAL CO-INTEGRATION VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (FCVAR) MODEL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61421/IJSSMER.2026.4504Keywords:
Climate Change, Health Outcomes, Economic Growth, Fractional Integration, Fractional Co-integrationAbstract
This study investigates the persistence and dynamic interdependence of climate change, health outcomes and economic growth in Nigeria, contributing to the literature by jointly modelling fractional persistence and long-run relationships within a climate-health-growth framework. Using annual data on real GDP growth, climate change, life expectancy, infant mortality, labour-force participation and gross fixed capital formation, the study applies Gaussian semi-parametric (GSP) and Geweke-Porter-Hudak (GPH) fractional integration estimators alongside the Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive (FCVAR) model, which accommodates fractional orders of integration and cointegration. The results reveal heterogeneous persistence: economic growth, climate change and capital formation are predominantly non-stationary but mean-reverting, whereas life expectancy, infant mortality and labour-force participation exhibit stronger, largely non-mean-reverting persistence. The FCVAR bootstrap rank tests further reveal selective rather than pervasive long-run interdependence, with fractional cointegration identified only for economic growth-life expectancy, economic growth-infant mortality and climate change-life expectancy. The findings establish health outcomes as an important long-run linkage between climatic conditions and economic performance in Nigeria. The study concludes that persistent shocks and long-run adjustment are heterogeneous across the climate-health-growth nexus. Consequently, policy should integrate climate adaptation with sustained healthcare investment, disease prevention, climate-resilient infrastructure and green productive investment, while strengthening institutional coordination to mitigate persistent health and economic vulnerabilities.
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